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Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning

Victoria State Government


Long-term observed records show that Victoria’s climate is changing under the influence of both natural variability and global warming. The climate experienced over the long term is no longer a good indicator of the climate we can expect in the future. Instead, we rely on information from climate models, along with other information. Climate models give robust projections of the
future climate, providing a solid evidence base from which to assess the risks of climate change
and inform decisions that will support Victoria’s resilience into the future.

By the 2050s, if the current rate of global warming continues, Victorian towns could experience around double the number of very hot days each year compared to the 1986–2005 average. By the 2090s, Victoria is projected to warm on average by 2.8 to 4.3°C under a high emissions scenario compared to 1986–2005. Victoria is likely to have a significantly lengthened fire season with the number of very high fire danger days likely to continue to increase. Sea levels along the Victorian coast are also likely to continue to rise.

Climate change poses a serious risk for Victoria and the science underpinning this report has shown that not every region in Victoria will change in the same way. Using robust science to understand the potential impacts of climate change is essential to build a more resilient Victoria in the future.